Time for a moment.

Romney is the candidate!

No, he’s not…Gingrich is the man now…he has more delegates!

No…that doesn’t matter, Santorum is moving nicely…he is the one.

No…Ron Paul has managed to capture the Paul-bots…he will have the greatest  influence.

Yawn!

At this point there have been 1% – 2% of available delegates won. Nobody can tell you who will get the nod or who will find public support or who the best candidates are to win against Obama.

All we can say today is that there is a long way to go.

Of course, the political pundits and talking heads are desperately trying to find reasons for the shocking reversal…reasons that explain why their chosen man did not win this last weekend.

We are hearing all sorts of stuff like it was Juan William’s or King that should be thanked for Gingrich’s sudden reversal in the polls.

Really?

Let me see….a question suggesting a candidate was racist because he called Obama a “food stamp president” was enough to give that candidate an edge in the primary? Ok, if you say so.

Or, a question about an ex-wife’s statement was enough to give the candidate a victory in the Primary?

Do you REALLY think that is true?

Or maybe you think it was those questions that allowed Gingrich an opportunity to answer…to create a moment…to absolutely destroy the front-runner in the primary by being outspoken about his own beliefs?

How simple minded do you folk really think we are?

Do you really believe that people voted for Gingrich because he attacked the media?

Do you really believe it is Gingrich’s debating ability that got him the victory?

We live in a world where the Republican establishment has already selected their candidate. There is no doubt in my mind that Romney was given the nod maybe even 4 years ago. The establishment stacked the candidate roster with a lot of consevatives….in the hope that the real conservative vote would be split with no single conservative having the support to challenge the moderate Romney.

Apart from the fact that this plan was sure to fail, and that it would ultimately lead to the re-election of Obama, I guess it was a good one.

I say it was sure to fail because it did not take into account the thirst of the conservative voter. It did not take into account the need for the conservative voter to know as much about the eventual candidate as possible. It did not take into account the fact that people no longer trust the Republican establishment.

This is why we have the “anybody but Romney” kickback.

And the establishment is rocked….it cannot believe that the nomination process is not over. It does not believe that it’s choice for candidate is not already crowned.

And it cannot believe that Gingrich can possibly be seen as a viable option.

Why?

Well, with all his baggage, the religious vote cannot possibly go his way….wrong!

Gingrich received 41% of the evangelical vote in South Carolina.

Hmm…well, married women will never vote for this philanderer!  Wrong again…41% did!

Ok…then, how about this….no way can he get the much sought after independent vote…he is far to extreme to get them….!  Umm…44% of independents say you are wrong!

So what happened?

Why did the guy with all the baggage…the guy that is unelectable….the guy who is too liberal or too conservative…or two abrasive…win the South Carolina Primary?

For anybody with their heads up their “you-know-whats”, this is a difficult question to answer. For the rest of us….it is easy.

Two happened in this last week or so that made people take a second look at Newt:-

1.       He managed to parlay stupid questions in a debate into “memorable moments”. I have spoken before on the need for candidates to create “moments”. See my post back in June last year where I set out a blueprint for how to win the nomination. (http://devereauxdailydose.blogspot.com/2011/06/wanna-win-forget-debates.html ) . Perhaps Gingrich or his handlers actually read it? In any event, he has understood that in order to win, you must create moments…and deliver a simple message.

2.       The second thing that Gingrich has done, that none of the other candidates has even come close to doing. He has been able to articulate the conservative message in simple terms that can be understood by all. He is able to reference that message to the problems we all see in our daily lives. He is able to connect the dots in a personal way that none of the other candidates is doing.

As a result, he is winning over the conservative base….he is giving them reason to hope…he is providing the motivation to know that their own beliefs are rock solid. And most importantly, he is offering a real alternative to the Obama we have now.

He is not afraid of attacking Obama….he is not afraid of standing strongly on what he believes…he is not afraid of his past…and he is visible to all the world where his faults are seen.

Is he the perfect candidate?

Far from it.

Do the voters care?

Not at all.

And this is why I have said many times that the nomination process must continue for as long as possible.

If Romney is able to learn and understand that we want a conservative, he can turn this around…if he learns to articulate what conservatism is.

If Newt’s baggage, or lack of self-control becomes an issue, it will come out as the primaries progress…remember Howard Dean’s meltdown? If Newt is going to implode, let him implode.

If Santorum find some passion and learns what we really want in a conservative candidate, maybe he will be the one.

Even Ron Paul could ignite the imagination…and have a greater impact.

The last thing we should be looking for right now is a reduction in the field. These 4 guys should be encouraged to go at it hammer and fist…..they should be encouraged to debate policy, but not attack each other’s conservative credentials….they should unite in continuous attacks against Obama….but above all, they must learn what the conservative base wants and earn the trust of those people. They must become the champions that will do what the people want.

Then, and only then, should the nomination be decided.

As far as Obama goes…well, he is preparing for his State of the Campaign speech tomorrow night. The rumor mill tells us that he is going to base his speech on the premise that he “wants America to return to what made America great”….

Really?

That is what he has?

The most powerful leader in the world is telling the country he wants it to return to what made it great?

I have a question….

Why is he not leading us there? Why is he not using his great leadership skills to motivate us to follow him to greatness?

Could it be because he :-

a)      Has NO leadership skills

b)      Does know where he is headed

c)       Does not know what made America great

d)      All of the above

The Campaigner-in-Chief is once again calling on America to do his own job for him, so that he can sit back and say he did it.

You can expect several themes from this State-of- the-Campaign speech:-

1.       A continuation of the class warfare approach. He will rail strongly against the 1%

2.       A continuation of the fairness culture…the rich must pay their fair share

3.       A claim that the middle class is at risk as a result of the greed of the wealthy

4.       Attacks against an intransigent and broken congress caused by the unwillingness of the Republicans to agree to liberal demands (of course it will be phrased as their preference for party politics over taking action that will feed grandma or keep your kids safe)

5.       Continued statements that the poor must be protected from Wall Street. That people must be kept in their homes,  and that the economy is getting better.

6.       Expect the lies about employment numbers and for good measure maybe even inflation numbers

7.       Expect the plea for further stimulus and higher debt to keep the country improving so we do not short –stop the economy through starvation of the dollar kind

8.       I am not entirely sure of this but I suspect he will play the race card somewhere here as a weak and very obvious attempt to rally blacks to his re-election cause

IN looking at that above list one has to wonder just how badly his re-election campaign must be doing. He clearly can’t stand on his performance…and has to appeal to the future performance – if only he gets 4 more years!

And finally…there is no doubt that liberalism is a mental disorder. That is the only reason I can think of for why so many Obama supporters are so stupid. If it is a mental disorder, maybe we should all pick one liberal family member, or friend, and arrange an intervention.

Their disease is curable….but only if they accept their addiction and want to change to become worthy of the mantel of citizen of the United States of America.

…..devereaux